Wednesday, November 23, 2016

DOW Breaks 19,000!

Ahah! The DOW has reached an all-time high! Obviously this is a confirmation that the markets support the new administration!

Well, not quite. Part of it is that the economy has been throwing off healthy signs for quite some time now,and regardless of the propaganda off the campaign trail, we continue to see an upward trend. This is what in cooking terms is "carry-over heat" where the turkey's internal temp keeps rising even though you've killed the heat in the oven (pardon the analogy, but 'tis the season).

Part of the rise is that finally, for good or ill, is that things are over. The markets have been doldruming in the mid 18000s for a while now, waiting for the decision. Every investment operation had an "A" envelope and a "B" envelope, depending on the results. A lot of groups didn't have much in the "B" envelope since it didn't look likely, but still, at least there was an envelope. So systems are locked in place.

The weird thing is that no one is really sure what the "B" envelope exactly means. The new guy is fleeing the sweeping declarations he made to get elected at something approaching lightspeed, and no one is quite sure if he means what he is saying NOW or if he's going to heel-turn again. The level at which people are trying to figure out who's REALLY in charge is high, and probably will be with us for some time. This happened with the younger Bush, who conventional wisdom said was the not the brightest soul, but had his father's advisors. And look how that turned out.

So we're probably in for a period of unsettlement in the markets (and everywhere else). If asked if I know where this will go, I can only shrug my shoulders - we're in undetermined territory. I expect the usual suspects will look at this as a sign the "All Will Be Well", but most of these doofs were the same guys who have fretted with every step of the last 10,000 points on the DOW under the last guy. Perhaps I will get to the point of having to write "DOW Breaks 29,000!", which would be kinda cool, but I have my doubts.

More later,