I often use the term "hanging fire" in reporting these results. The term means a delay between an action and the results of that action. It comes from firearms, in that there is sometimes a delay between pulling the trigger and fully igniting the combustible gunpowder in the bullet itself. The delay in modern firearms may be a second or two, which is enough to cause the barrel to move off target and the shot to miss. In earlier muzzle-loading firearms, the gunpowder behind the cotton wad and solid bullet may not ignite immediately, with the same effect. In even earlier firearms like flintlocks, the gunpowder is on a pan external to the gun, and the powder may ignite with a bright flash but do nothing to fire the weapon. That's where we get the term "flash in a pan".
And this is how the term applies to voting in Washington State. Ballots here need to be turned in at ballot boxes by 8 PM, or postmarked by midnight of election day in order to be counted. Older and more conservative voters tend to vote early in the process, while younger and more liberal voters tend to vote later. So if the race is close, it may be several days before the smoke clears (hey, another firearms allusion) and we get to see what happened.
Case in point - Seattle Mayor. Progressive candidate Katie Wilson versus more centrist Bruce Harrell. On election night and the first drop of ballots, Harrell is up 54-46 percent, which in most terms would mean victory. But, late voters tend to skew further to the left. BUT this is an off-year election, and participation is often less than the big-ticket elections. AND there is a greater chance that last-minute mail-ins will not be postmarked in time because they've been gutting the post office (and announced laying off another 30k staffers because, you know, Christmas is such a slow season for the post office). In any event, I think that it will tighten up, and may even be a squeaker, but incumbent Harrell will stay mayor. [Edit - I wrote that paragraph on Wednesday after the election. A week later Katie Wilson not only caught up but passed Bruce Harrell (50-49.5). It may STILL require a machine recount (within 0.5% of total vote) and ultimately depend on verifying challenged ballots and counting late overseas-but-still-postmarked ballots, but it looks like Wilson made up an 8-point early debit to win.]
(And lest we think it that such a comeback was the result of mail-in voting, when I lived in Kenosha County, the initial election results (from Kenosha and Racine) showed huge margins for the Democratic candidates, from the urban vote, and the networks would declare it a win for the more conservative Republicans accounting for when the expected larger rural vote that would show up later. And they would be right.)
But let's look at the ballot at Grubb Street. This is as of Tuesday night, a week after the election.
Proposed Constitutional Amendment: Senate Joint Resolution No. 8201 (Amend the state constitution to let elderly care funding play the stock market as opposed to just investing in bonds): Approved 56-42 statewide. In King County the margin was 71-29.
King County Proposition No. 1 Medic One - Emergency Medical Services Replacement of Existing Levy: Yes 81-19
King County Public Hospital District No. 1 Proposition No. 1 Levy Lid Lift for Health Care Services: Approved 58-42
King County Executive: Girmay Zahilay 54-45. The first night's count had it closer (50-48), but this was a choice between two good, similar candidates.
Metropolitan King County Council District No. 5: Stephanie Fain 55-44 (This blog gave Fain the most tepid of recommendations, then her opponent pretty much flamed out with misleading claims and conservative backing.)
City of Kent Council Position No. 2: Satwinder Kaur 62-37.
City of Kent Council Position No. 6: Sharn Shoker 50-49 This blog endorsed her opponent in the primary but switched to Shoker in the general election, Then didn't mention it in the final summary. The management regrets the error. This is another close one, where Andy Song led the first night, then Shoker caught up and passed. So this one was Hanging Fire (see above). Unlikely that this content will come down to a recount, but this was another case of two good candidates.
Kent School District No. 415 Director District No. 4: Teresa Gregory 58-40
Kent School District No. 415 Director District No. 5: Laura Williams 65-34
Total voting in King County ran about 45% of registered voters, with a large percentage being turned in at ballot drops.
OK, that's it. I'm going back to theatre reviews and talking about games, but I will pop back should anything change.
More later,
