Monday, October 31, 2016

The Political Desk: The Jeff Recommends

OK, we are a week away from election day, and the vast bulk of you in Washington State who pay attention to such  have already put together your ballots, mailed it/dropped it off at nearby ballot drops, and then bragged about it on the Facebooks. So let me summarize the past week or so (You can dig through the previous posts for the reasons - if particular, you can find links to other people's endorsements and information here):

Initiative Measure No. 1433 (Statewide Minimum Wage) - YES
Initiative Measure No. 1464 (Campaign Finance Reform) - YES
Initiative Measure No, 1491 (Reduce access to Firearms) - YES
Initiative Measure No, 1501 (Protect Seniors from Fraud/Reduce Transparency) - NO
Initiative Measure No. 732 Carbon Tax) - YES
Initiative Measure No. 735 Constitutional Amendment to overturn Citizen's United) -  YES

Advisory Vote No. 14  House Bill 2768  (Does it really matter?) - MAINTAINED
Advisory Vote No. 15 Second Engrossed Substitute House Bill 2778  (Seriously, I mean, advisory as in no one in charge has to pay attention) - MAINTAINED

Proposed Amendment to the State Constitution Senate Joint Resolution No. 8210. (Move redistricting deadline) - APPROVED

King County Charter Amendment No. 1 Nonpartisan Prosecuting Attorney.  - YES 
King County Charter Amendment No. 2 Gender-Neutral Language. -  YES

President of the United States - Hillary Clinton
US Senator - Patty Murray
US Representative, 9th District - Adam Smith

Governor - Jay Inslee 
Lt. Governor - Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State - Tina Podlowski 
State Treasurer - Duane Davidson
State Auditor - Pat (Patrice) McCarthy
Attorney General - Bob Ferguson 
Commissioner of Public Lands - Hilary Franz 
Superintendent  of Public Instruction - Erin Jones (with a respectful nod to Chris Reykdal)
Insurance Commission - Mike Kriedler 

Legislative District No. 11 State Senator - Bob Hasegawa 
Legislative District No. 11 Representative Position No. 1 - Zack Hudgins 
Legislative District No. 11 Representative Position No. 2 - Steve Berquist 

Justice Position No. 1Mary Yu
Justice Position No. 5:  Barbara Madsen
Justice Position No. 6: Charles (Charlie) Wiggins

Court of Appeals, Division No. 1, District No. 1 Michael J. Trickey

Judge Position No. 14: Nichole Gaines Phelps
Judge Position No. 26: David Keenan
Judge Position No. 31Helen Halpert
Judge Position No. 44Cathy Moore 
Judge Position No. 52: Anthony Gipe 
Judge Position No. 53: Mariane Spearman

Sound Transit (A Regional Transit Authority) Proposition No,. 1 Light-Rail, Commuter-Rail, and Bus Service Expansion - APPROVED

Kent School District No,. 415 Proposition No. 1 Capital Improvement and School Construction General Obligation Bonds - APPROVED

A few other notes from the peanut (or pundit) gallery:

1) I expect Ms. Clinton to win with a decisive number of electoral college votes.
2) I expect the popular vote to be much closer than that. In fact, with the third party votes floating around, Ms. Clinton may get a plurality (most votes), but not a majority (more than 50% of the votes). This will be seized upon as a reason why her opponents should stand in the way on all legislation. As if they need a reason.
3) I expect the Republican Party to survive this, much like the Democratic Party survived its blowout in 1972. In the Democrat's case, the result was met with a move towards the center. For the Republicans, I think that they will just dump the current candidate into the memory hole with the previous GOP Administration (As Homer Simpson once said "Alright, we're here. Let us never speak of the short cut again.").
4) If I'm wrong, the Republican party will split into three, not two. There is already a flight among Republicans to the Libertarian movement (Socially liberal, Economically conservative) - the bulk of Libertarian candidates running in Washington State were Republicans until recently. The other party is socially conservative and economically liberal - call them Caring Conservatives, Dan Evans Republicans, Good People, or the Ned Flanders party. Religious but with outreach programs and soup kitchens. Finally there will be the Rump (not a typo) Republicans. We've had to deal with these folks for years - they were the Democrat's headache up to the Sixties, when Nixon recruited them in his Southern Strategy. Call them Tea Party, call them the American Independent Party, call them Dixiecrats, they will remain a challenge for whoever is putting a government together.
5) Ms. Clinton's administration will be incredibly investigated. Somewhere, someone will find that she ripped tags off of mattresses, and that will be the end of it.
6) Finally, should the Reps break up, the Dems well may follow. The Democrats have always been a big. squabbling tent, gathered together by a common foe, but the stress between the Corporate-supporters and the Progressives will be strong. Lack of a coherent opponent, and creation of new opportunities, may create their own fracturing.

Should any of this happen, I will be as surprised as you, but in the meantime, get you ballots in!

More later,